Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 21.729844 22.924523 24.179284 25.600493 27.171829 28.863329 30.831725
2026-01-11 20.107993 21.779534 23.618843 25.811527 28.379636 31.325019 35.008201
2026-01-18 18.954836 20.879130 23.061670 25.754745 29.038702 32.983646 38.197387
2026-01-25 17.905141 19.966344 22.356948 25.384550 29.193882 33.943214 40.516925
2026-02-01 17.042925 19.193440 21.733266 25.019898 29.266204 34.734166 42.623839
2026-02-08 16.308403 18.518323 21.168438 24.661547 29.280069 35.401231 44.577821
2026-02-15 15.734066 18.000465 20.756487 24.451767 29.445187 36.249600 46.845194
2026-02-22 15.510612 17.898284 20.849053 24.885633 30.484255 38.377301 51.273003
2026-03-01 15.046334 17.467036 20.492699 24.691184 30.625103 39.203868 53.743591
2026-03-08 14.470733 16.869071 19.890590 24.125701 30.192413 39.124618 54.681820
2026-03-15 14.039124 16.439091 19.488437 23.809306 30.090535 39.527606 56.480214
2026-03-22 13.920879 16.407905 19.607762 24.216177 31.066232 41.684443 61.720417
2026-03-29 13.722514 16.271159 19.588245 24.438115 31.800119 43.561244 66.874585
2026-04-05 13.521210 16.122486 19.544924 24.621184 32.484874 45.427383 72.412170
2026-04-12 13.253479 15.873859 19.351418 24.569614 32.788728 46.657332 76.866134
2026-04-19 12.905463 15.505250 18.976488 24.228056 32.598520 46.979952 79.345423
2026-04-26 12.579055 15.156252 18.616567 23.891391 32.392444 47.249414 81.757234
2026-05-03 12.272090 14.825206 18.270844 23.560270 32.173391 47.470841 84.103527
2026-05-10 12.024585 14.568895 18.022502 23.366307 32.170892 48.101663 87.652479
2026-05-17 11.973987 14.581760 18.157292 23.767360 33.206200 50.870351 97.813248
2026-05-24 11.751192 14.348617 17.928793 23.587665 33.215848 51.568746 102.262118
2026-05-31 11.436626 13.980118 17.493726 23.064641 32.588282 50.885361 102.284501
2026-06-07 11.202106 13.719133 17.209149 22.771709 32.357902 51.024466 105.021736